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Kirk lost the regular season contest and now needs to eat an Applebee's well-done steak. But there's still some football to be played, so here are some picks just for funzies.
The Wild Card round is one of the great sports weekends of the year. We would argue they should do away with the Monday game and just give us wall-to-wall action on Saturday and Sunday. But we're not going to complain about three-straight days of playoff football.
We're going to record our picks against the spread for every game this postseason and see who does better (bragging rights and maybe some side bets to be wagered).
Then we'll also give you some weird Bonus Bets that we're teaming up on and track how we do with those. Enjoy the games!
Matt's Picks
0-0 this postseason
Texans +2.0
Betting on a rookie QB and rookie head coach against the NFL's best defense is probably not a winning strategy. But I just can't go against C.J. Stroud at home in such a big game. He has come up clutch so many times this season and I think he will out duel Old Man Flacco in this one. Cleveland's defense was unbelievable this year, but if you dive into the numbers they weren't all that great on the road. Give me the more fun team and the exciting young QB (you're welcome, Uncle Jack).
Chiefs -4.5
This line is too high. Probably should take Miami. But I don't know. They looked pretty broken without Mostert and Waddle last week. I'm not sure how much Achane is going to be able to get going in his first playoff test. I also think the ridiculously cold weather eliminates (or at least reduces) the Tyreek Hill factor. This is the game I am least confident in against the spread. I think the Chiefs pull out the win, but wouldn't be shocked if it was by a field goal and I lose this pick. I'd just rather be on Mahomes at home in this spot than the alternative.
Bills -10.0
Another really bad weather game with lots of wind. Steelers have a clear path to victory if they can get their two-headed running game going with Harris and Warren. But it's a tall order to ask Mason Rudolph to go win on the road in Buffalo in front of those fired up fans in sloppy conditions. Josh Allen has been in this spot many times before, and knows how to perform despite the Lake Effect. I think Buffalo does enough to win by a couple scores.
Packers +7.0
No explanation needed. It's Dak Prescott (0-3 ATS at home in the playoffs) and the choke artist Cowboys. A vast coaching mismatch as well. Packers keep it close.
Rams +3.0
Let's gooooo. Probably the square underdog pick of the week here, but I don't care. The Rams have been so much fun down the stretch and I think they'll come flying in here with tons of momentum and get it done. It will be an emotional game for both quarterbacks, so give me the savvier veteran in Stafford who should be able to keep his cool and take care of business. Did I also just sprinkle a taste on the Rams to win the Super Bowl at +5000 odds? Yes. Yes I did.
Eagles -3.0
Both teams looked horrible the last few weeks, that's for sure. The Eagles might truly be broken, but I also think that's been the easy narrative heading into the playoffs. All my Philly friends won't shut up like, "Oh they stink, they're done, yadayada, let's eat some pressils and drink some wooter." Dude, this team was 10-1 and won a lot of ugly games in the trenches. It's not gonna be sexy or encouraging, but I think they do enough to get to the next round. They might get choke-slammed a week from Sunday by the 49ers or Cowboys, but against the Bucs, I like their chances.
Kirk's Picks
0-0 this postseason
Browns -2.0
While this feels like a total Browns let down game against a talented rookie QB in CJ Stroud, I'm going to stick with the uncomfortable pick and take the Browns. I don't feel all that great about it but as it's under a field goal I'll still be able to sleep at night.
Chiefs -4.5
I hold a special hatred in my heart for the Chiefs, with no bias of course, just a pure good old fashioned hatred. Unfortunately for me, they're playing the awful, fraudulent, injured Dolphins at Arrow Head Stadium in near zero degree temperatures. I expect the Dolphins to get punched in the mouth and lose in a relatively low scoring affair.
FUCK!
Steelers +10.0
This is another pick I truly hate! Funny how the playoffs does that when you're forced to pick each game. No T.J. Watt will be a serious issue for the Steelers as Matt covers below for our bonus picks. Having said that, taking the points here is really flipping a coin that bad Josh Allen is going to show up with some awful turnovers.
Cowboys -7.0
While it would humor me greatly to see Jordan Love have continued success and make Aaron Rodgers stew in quiet anger, the party is officially over here. The Cowboys have been absolutely dominant and I think essentially a rookie QB in Love in a hostile environment will be too much for him. I don't trust them either and they've had plenty of dog shit games this year.
Rams +3.0
I've placed a significant wager of my own on the Rams (I got them at +3.5 we'll see if that matters) I am clearly taking them here. I think they have such a potent offense against Detroit's shitty one, this will end up being a shoot out of sorts. Aaron Donald will hopefully be the key difference maker here.
Eagles -3.0
How could I not pick the Birds here? Either they win, which is a win, or they lose and we possibly see a coaching shake up, which is a win. Let's see what you got Baker. My body is ready.
Bonus Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week +$1,036.69 for the regular season
Moneyline Parlay (-144)
Chiefs and Bills
Tua Tagovailoa and Mason Rudolph are both making their playoff debut as road underdogs. Quarterbacks in that situation are 6-17 straight up, which does not bode well for the Dolphins or the Steelers.
Furthermore, the Dolphins are winless in their last 9 games in which the temperature dropped below 40 degrees. This will definitely be the coldest game that Tua has ever played in, with expected temps at kickoff to be in the single digits. The high-speed Miami offense will definitely be limited and the banged up defense will have to spend a lot of time freezing their asses off on the field.
And finally, the Steelers are 1-10 straight up without T.J. Watt. Credit to 3-0 Mason Rudolph for dragging the Steelers into the playoffs, but the fairytale ends this weekend in Orchard Park.
💰 $72.00 to win $50.00
Kyren Williams Parlay (+1200)
Kyren Williams to score 1+ rushing touchdown Kyren Williams to score 1+ receiving touchdown
One of the most fun players to watch, playing on a team that is definitely the most fun underdog of the bunch. Let's see if he can have himself a day.
💰 $28.00 to win $336.00
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!