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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to another season of Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must drive to the State Diner in Ithaca, NY and eat a bowl of chicken and rice soup alone.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get these picks over with so we can go back to battling our sugar-happy children for the last Twix bar.
Matt's Picks
$113.70 available to bet this week +$13.70 last week -$226.65 for the season
We need to open this week with a very important political message.
Make 3-point home field advantage great again!
And if you are new to the site, be sure to read about the most important Halloween victory I ever achieved (whipped the vote so fucking hard in my office costume contest).
Rams (-1.5)
Straight up ATS (-110)
It seems kind of obvious, but the Rams are a totally different team when they have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. It's also nice that we are getting them after a few extra days of rest, since they played Thursday last week in their win against the Vikings. There is something strange brewing in the NFC West this year. Check out the standings:
It's anyone's division at this point, even though it looked like the Rams might be ready to pack it in a couple weeks ago. All of a sudden Sean McVay has his offense humming with a chance to leapfrog a division rival in the standings. I like it.
You know what else I like? Sprinkling a tiny bit on Rams to win the NFC West (+390), Rams to win the NFC (+2800), and Rams to win the Super Bowl (+6000).
💰 $33.50 to win $30.00
6-Point Teaser Fuck the Haters (-120)
Bills ML Packers +8.5
Bills: They are continuing to play very well and have a stranglehold on the AFC East. They're sitting at 6-2 with everyone else in the division having just 2 wins. Will that make them complacent against a shaky division opponent? Maybe. But I'm not too worried. I'm still not liking anything I'm seeing from the Dolphins. Even with Tua back, they blew a lead at home to the Cardinals' horrible defense. Plus, the Bills will be locked in here. They can take care of business over the next two weeks against the Dolphins and Colts before heading into a tough stretch against the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, and Lions. You definitely want to bank wins before running into that gauntlet.
Packers: This is a scary one because betting against the Lions has been wildly unprofitable over the last two seasons. However, according to the Action Network, teams who have covered 80% or more of their games (the Lions) are just 32% against the spread when playing as a road divisional favorite. It's a trend that I like considering that I already have a love for home divisional dogs like the Packers. This line opened at 3.5 and got bet down to 2.5 already, making it a nice teaser leg. But the real reason you have to load up on the Packers this week is the forecast in Green Bay. It's calling for a 90% chance of rain. You know what that means for Uncle Jack's favorite player, Jared "small hands" Goof. He is terrible in the elements, making this a perfect spot to fade the red hot Lions.
💰 $72.00 to win $60.00
Adjusted Line Blowout Parlay (+2066)
Ravens -20.5 Chiefs -20.5
Ravens: They are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Browns and now have to face a very feisty Broncos team. This line opened at Ravens -9 and immediately people started pounding the Broncos. And why shouldn't they? The narrative is that the Ravens secondary stinks, they can't hold a lead, and Lamar is shaky as a big favorite. That's exactly what they want you to think! They are begging you to take the Broncos here. I'm not walking into the trap. Bo Nix has been way better than expected, but heading into Baltimore is no easy task. The easy money play here is Ravens first half -5.5. But let's take a bit of a shot here and look for Lamar to absolutely smoke the unproven rookie.
Chiefs: The Chiefs are poised to put it all together this week. They've now had some time to work DeAndre Hopkins into the game plan and Travis Kelce finally woke up. I'm not a believer in Baker Mayfield without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs were barely able to keep it together at home against a mediocre Falcons team last week. They got a fourth quarter safety and a garbage time touchdown to lose by 5. Now they have to go on the road into Arrowhead against an undefeated Mahomes? No thanks. Again, pushing the spread up this high is kind of dumb. The better move is to tease the Chiefs down to +2.5. But we're trying to dig out of a hole here, so let's go for it.
Tyrod's Take
ay yo, happy all hallows eve to my ill crew! it's ya boy tyrod, comin at ya this week after mornin walkthroughs at jetlife stadium. it's game day, mofos! and the only thing scarier than watchin our ghastly team go up against the texans is the collection of questionable costumes my boys were wearin today.
first off, aaron came in dressed up as zombie doctor fauci and was handin out n95 masks with snowflakes all over them. i knew it was fake, but the sight of that syringe hangin out of his lab coat was still givin me terrifyin flashbacks to my time in san diego. i tried to sneak off to the restroom, but garrett wilson was standin at the sink tryin to buzz his head and bleach his skin. i must have been lookin at him funny because he quickly explained, "i'm just tryin to look more like jordy nelson so aaron throws me the ball!" meanwhile, davante was on the other side of the room drapin a ghostly white sheet over his head. now that mofo can be invisible on and off the field. imagine requestin a trade from a 2-6 team that plays in fuckin las vegas and landin on a 2-6 team that plays in a new jersey swamp. that's like bobbin for apples except some creep shat a turd out in the bucket while ya were blindfolded.
speakin of swamps, breece is here rockin a nematode costume because he's so used to lookin like he's stuck in the mud. the offensive line all coordinated their orange outfits — they're dressed up like traffic cones for obvious reasons — and woody johnson also showed up wearin orange, only it was a reflective vest in support of trump's trash truck closin argument. and don't get me started on greg the leg. he showed up lookin like jack nicholson frozen in the hedge maze durin the last scene of the shining. he's been so cold he didn't even need to fake the icicles hangin from his face. too bad coach had to put him on injured reserve because of frostbite.
me? tyrod's a simple guy. i painted on some cat whiskers and wore some fake ears. the guys gave me a little shit for it, but i don't wanna call any attention to myself. i'm pretty sure coach ulbrich don't know my name yet and i'm tryin to keep it that way. i got the murder house season of american horror story loaded up on the ol microsoft surface, so i got no interest in gettin into this game tonight. talmage knows not to interrupt me when i'm spendin quality time with missus connie britton. tell ya wife i'm sorry, i didn't know the lock on ya guest bedroom door was broken.
irregardless, i hope ya picks this week are more "treat" than "trick", although knowin ya two jokers, i'm sure there will be a few boxes of fuckin necco wafers thrown into the mix. whatever ya do though, don't bet on us. i just watched tyler conklin chug a liter of sam adams oktoberfest out of a pumpkin carved into the shape of rex ryan's face, big false teeth and all. it's gonna be a spooky night out on that field, gentlemen. take care and i'll check in with ya fools next week!
Kirk's Picks
$107.00 available to bet this week +$7.00 last week -$316.02 for the season
Yeah, it may only be a $7.00 win from last week but you know what? I didn't lose another $200 plus.
There's a lot of value there the public isn't seeing. Every time I lose hundreds of dollars my mom is trying to get me put into a conservatorship. It never works and the judge has been throwing the petitions out but I'm pretty sure it's just her way of getting back at me for the 'grief' I caused her in my youth by attempting to scare the shit out of her all the time.
Maybe it's because it's Halloween that I'm just starting to piece this puzzle together.
After all, what's scarier than someone coming between a man and his God given right to throw money away and keep food from his family's table?
Browns Money Line (+106)
You know what else is a bit spooky? Trusting in Jameis Winston. Well it certainly would have been years ago. Years ago when I didn't fucking know ball.
Jameis came in last week and did exactly what Matt knew he would. He fucking played the game of his life and took it to the Ravens and snatched their souls with a late game winning drive.
I loved seeing it. I think seeing 'washed' QB's come back and win are some of the best moments in sports.
I'm gonna ride with this Browns team that played hard last week for Jameis. They also have the opportunity to beat the Harbutt brothers in back to back games. I also think the Chargers are a super flawed team.
As long as the Browns don't get a fat head (they are 2-6 so hopefully not) I think they take care of business, at home.
💰 $107.00 to win $113.42
Bonus Bet
+$550.00 last week +$360.00 for the season
Let's keep it going with another nice 5-to-1 shot, what do ya say?
Same Game Parlay (+575)
Breece Hall over 66.5 rushing yards
Joe Mixon over 82.5 rushing yards
C.J. Stroud over 9.5 rushing yards
💰 $100.00 to win $575.00
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!