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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to another season of Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must drive to the State Diner in Ithaca, NY and eat a bowl of chicken and rice soup alone.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get these picks over with so we can go back to refreshing Fivethirtyeight every 5.38 seconds.
Matt's Picks
$174.25 available to bet this week +$74.25 last week -$240.35 for the season
Here's hoping that I can keep up the momentum from last week and use my extra cash to chip away at this deficit. It has been a tough start to the season for someone who loves betting disgusting, decrepit, smelly underdogs. The public favorites have been cashing week after week and I, for one, am sick of it. I'm ready for the bad quarterbacks and clueless coaches who provide so much fodder for content to finally start producing some winning tickets. Fingers crossed! Now speaking of decrepit dogs...
Browns (+8.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
Jameis Winston is a national treasure.
💰 $31.50 to win $30.00
Bears (-2.5)
Straight up ATS (-115)
Kirk and I must have angered Taranis who, in turn, cursed our boy Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will turn to Marcus Mariota in this game, who does not frighten me in the least. Caleb Williams and the Bears are starting to find their groove and now they get a favorable matchup at home coming off a bye week against an iffy backup quarterback. The Commanders have done a lot of great things and probably will keep doing them when Daniels is back. This is just a tough spot for them.
💰 $34.50 to win $30.00
Colts (+5.5)
Straight up ATS (-114)
I didn't look at Kirk's picks before making my own, but I see he's going head-to-head against me in this one. Bring it on. These two teams seem like they always play each other close in hard-fought divisional matchups. The Texans barely scraped by the Colts in Week 1, beating them by 2 and needing a miracle catch by Nico Collins to do it. You know who won't be playing in this game? Nico Collins, who will be sidelined again with injury. Give me the Colts to keep it close or potentially steal it.
💰 $33.45 to win $30.00
Cowboys (+4.5)
Straight up ATS (-115)
The vibes are horrible for both teams in this one. The Cowboys are in disarray with Jerry Jones throwing his own coaches and players in front of the bus that takes the old folks from the senior living center to the grocery story on Tuesday mornings. The 49ers have a mysterious shaman named Taranis holding a personal grudge against their head coach and poking voodoo dolls of their players with hot sticks. Luckily for the Cowboys, they are getting a bit healthier and had the bye week to regroup. Dak Prescott has also been surprisingly good in the red zone this season. I think they do enough to keep it close against an absolutely decimated Niners squad.
💰 $34.50 to win $30.00
Lions (-11.5)
Straight up ATS (-110)
I like betting on bad teams, iffy coaches, and hilarious quarterbacks, but even I can't talk myself into the Titans. They basically waved the white flag earlier in the week by trading away DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones. They are also starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, who might not be worse than Will Levis, but he's certainly not good. Then you have the Lions, who have been getting better every week and who are an astounding 73% against the spread in their last 26 games (19-7 if you count last season, the playoffs, and this season so far). Seems like this has brutal blowout potential written all over it. So I'll make this my one super square play of the week.
💰 $33.00 to win $30.00
Underdog Moneyline Parlay (+1692)
Rams Colts Cowboys
Rams: They'll be getting a pissed off Cooper Kupp back, who has been listening to trade rumors on the sideline for the last few weeks. Plus, Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the league and will have the Rams ready on short rest. I still refuse to buy the Vikings hype and wasn't surprised to see them take their first L of the year last week. Teams that suffer their first loss after an unbeaten streak to start the year often struggle in the following game. Historically, teams in this situation after Week 6 have a record of 32-42 against the spread, and they've gone 1-3 in Thursday night matchups. Colts: Uncle Jack has been flirting with abandoning the C.J. Stroud bandwagon and this might be the week he actually jumps off. Cowboys: This is the 49ers injury report right now. Don't fuck with Taranis.
💰 $7.30 to win $123.58
Tyrod's Take
ay yo what up ill crew? it's ya boy tyrod, comin at ya this week stuffed inside davante's locker. him and aaron are really givin me a hard time since he got to town. they are quite a devilish duo when they get together. kinda like how uncle jack and tony from the plant were behavin at talmage's halloween party last year. i was laughin my ass off, but uncle jack better hope no one snapped any pics of his tyrod costume. that shit is not gonna fly in 2024.
anyways, i hope somebody lets me outta here soon because we're about to hop on the bus up to foxborough to play the pats. we better figure out a way to win this one because i heard aaron say if we lose, he's gonna call up his boy elon and hitch a ride outta town on one of those space x rockets and start throwin paypal gift certificates out the window to everybody with a trump sign on their lawn. i swear to god if i have to start quarterbackin for another miserable new york football team, i'm gonna stab myself in the lung.
i fuckin downloaded hocus pocus on the ol microsoft surface to watch on the way up. talk about a fuckin halloween treat. witches and a talking cat? it's just one gratuitous nude scene away from hittin the tyrod trifecta. that's alright though. it's still got bette fuckin midler. that fine woman could cast a spell on me any time she wants. not sjp though, i'm kinda scared of her if ya wanna know the truth. watchin her tryin to suck the life out of some kids reminds me of an unfortunate incident back in blacksburg when a homely chick from the dorms got the wrong idea during a screening of the sex and the city movie. i still shudder when i think about it.
i hope the jets end up more like max the virgin (bustin up 300-year-old curses) than the sanderson sisters (meltin under the hot lights). but either way, watch for ya boy tyrod on the sidelines on sunday. bet ya ass i'll be tappin my toes to "i put a spell on you" and that's a bet you'd actually win for a change. hey talmage, can ya learn that shit on acoustic?
irregardless, nice job not crappin the bed in vegas. i was glad to see ya come home with money in ya pockets and ya wedding rings still intact. wish me luck in new england, i'll check in with ya fools next week!
Kirk's Picks
$211.28 available to bet this week +$111.28 last week -$323.02 for the season
Last week felt good.
But I realize I don't get anywhere without a good friendly hand to grip my inner demons so, so tight and keep me on the path to well fought, hard victory.
Time to get back in the lab with my new Football AI program and start stacking some more fucking cash. Let's boot it up.
Packers (-4.5)
Straight up ATS (-102)
The Jaguars are a terrible team. Coach Doug 'Butters' Pederson may have had another taste of victory last week in London but it happened to be against the worst team in the NFL (the Patriots).
While this week their home game is back in Florida I anticipate a good old fashion shit kicking from a far superior team. The Packers did struggle to close out the Texans last week, but they got the job done. Notably, they got the job done with a spotty performance by their QB Jordan Love.
If they can close out the Texans I have a hard time believing they can't beat this AFL team.
💰 $50.00 to win $49.02
Texans (-5.5)
Straight up ATS (-106)
Yes I just last week talked about the hubris of CJ Shroud causing the Texans to be doomed to failure, and I was right. But I don't make the will of The Football Gods, I merely attempt to interpret them.
This week the shapes in the darkness are telling me the Colts QB Anthony Richardson has worse accuracy than I do when throwing a football. A dire sign indeed.
With the Texans stout D Line I anticipate Anthony Richardson to be forced into many costly mistakes. The Colts are a deeply flawed team and it thanks to their weak schedule they currently find themselves sitting at 4-3. I do not understand how this spread isn't -6.5 or -7 in Houston. I'll take the points.
💰 $50.00 to win $47.17
Steelers (-6.5)
Straight up ATS (-106)
While the Steelers last win was impressive, this is not a bet on their offensive output, which, for years, has been suspect.
No this is a bet based on their defense being able to embarrass the Giants O Line which ranks down in the fucking cellar of the NFL.
I mean the Eagles of all teams just whipped the Giants at Met Life and had Jones running for his life (I believe the Eagles are not good this season, which means the Giants are super not good you guys).
Sometimes I forget the Giants haven't been good in about 15 years. Any they weren't that great as a whole.
They just had heart.
Now they have nothing! Suck it Matt!
💰 $111.28 to win $107.00
Bonus Bet
+$0.00 last week -$190.00 for the season
Let's return to action with a nice 5-to-1 shot, what do ya say?
Same Game Parlay
Adjusted spread Rams +3.5
Adjusted total Under 51.0
Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown
💰 $100.00 to win $550.00
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!