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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Wow, that preamble was longer than the Giant's odds against the Niners tonight. Let's get to this week's picks...
Matt's Picks
$100 available to bet this week -$4.43 last week $95.57 in the bank
My rope-a-dope strategy is working out nicely so far. Despite not having a profitable week, I still have more money in the bank because unlike my esteemed co-author, I did not get cleaned out on a 9-team parlay. There are lots of big favorites in Week 3, and while the old me would have thrown them all in a sweetheart teaser, I am an older, wiser, better version of myself.
Titans +3.5
Straight up ATS (-120)
After last week's outright win over the Chargers, Mike Vrabel's Titans are now 25-14-1 against the spread as an underdog. On the other side of the field, the Browns just lost their star running back to a gruesome injury in a MNF game that their overpaid, creepy QB completely threw away. Give me the Titans getting the hook and an extra day of rest.
💰 $24 to win $20
Broncos +6.5
Straight up ATS (-110)
It's ugly, but I'll take it. The Broncos are a lot better than their 0-2 record, but the public doesn't see it that way. People will be all over the Dolphins. Let's go the other way and look for Russell Wilson to be able to exploit a shitty Miami defense (or at least get the backdoor cover).
💰 $22 to win $20
Patriots -2.5
Straight up ATS (-110)
Bill Belichick owns Zach Wilson. Wilson is 0-4 against the Pats in his career with 2 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 11 sacks. Meanwhile the Patriots have played tough against two of the best teams in the league, but have ended up winless. They are way too good to wind up 0-3, so while I usually like the home underdog in division, I'm out on the Jets and in on the Pats.
💰 $22 to win $20
Panthers +6.5
Straight up ATS (-105)
Just give me a taste here. The Seahawks defense is highly suspect. Another game where people will be high on the Seahawks after a high-scoring victory over the Lions and down on the Panthers after a really awful MNF performance.
💰 $10.50 to win $10.00
6-Point Teaser (-134)
Bills (-0.5)
Buccaneers (+10.5)
Shit. I said I wasn't going to do a teaser this week. Oh well. I'm taking the Bills down to basically a pick 'em, for the sole reason that I just can't see a scenario where the Commanders wind up 3-0. Then give me the Bucs, crossing a bunch of key numbers to +10.5 against an Eagles team that is really good, but is not playing their best football yet and seems to be pretty banged up in the secondary. I think Mike Evans has a big game and the Bucs veteran defense can do enough to bottle up the Eagles run game (or at least keep it close).
💰 $21.50 to win $16.13
Kirk's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$138.56 last week $0.00 in the bank
After a rousing success in week 1, I took a real dick punch in week 2. I've already covered it in our recap but needless to say, I am staying away from bets on my birds. New mantra - they don't exist to me, they're gone baby, gone. https://birdsarentreal.com
For Week 3 I need to gain momentum and punish Matt's philosophy. Matt has about 17 fucking picks a week so this week I am going for a double throat punch on Thursday Night Football. I want 1 game in which all my eggs are in the basket so if I hit it, I can put Matt into a mental and physical tailspin for the whole weekend which he can't pull out of. The added benefit of betting against his precious Giants tonight will allow me to bring my mental warfare to new heights.
Niners -10.5
Straight up ATS (-115)
Not some out of the box analysis here - the Cowboys defense grundle punted the Giants all around the field in week 1. The G-Men made a comeback against the worst team in the NFL that many believe are actively tanking in week 2. Back to primetime for tonight's week 3 game against one of the favorites in the NFC who I feel have a better offense than Dallas with a comparable defense, um yeaaaaah, I think they can cover the points.
💰 $90 to win $78.26.
Same Game Parlay (+2210)
49ers -10.5, Darren Waller anytime TD, Christian McCaffrey anytime TD, Deebo Samuel anytime TD, Over 43.5 Points
I still need to be aggressive with these Same Game Parlays in attempt to get a leg up on Matt. The more I lose, the more I dig in. You just have to believe in the heart of the cards you're due to be dealt, and you'll win. I know why I've failed previously, and it's time to put a stop to it.
💰 $10.00 to win $221.09