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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Wow, that preamble was longer than Aaron Rodger's tenure with the Jets. Let's get to the picks.
Matt's Picks
$100 available to bet this week -$50.40 last week $49.60 in the bank
Week 2 is tough. You have to quickly figure out what was a fluke and what was legit from the first slate of games. And I'm here to tell you that I have done just that! Cousin Colin hooked me up with a set of tarot cards and together we peered into the near future, Sunday at 1:00 PM to be exact, with the sharpest clarity. I'm gonna go back to basics this week and pick five games against the spread.
Bears +2.5
Straight up ATS (-105)
People liked the Bears in August, now they hate them after Week 1. Conversely, everyone thought the Bucs were gonna be one of the worst teams in the league a month ago, but since they knocked off the shaky Vikings people are saying they will win the NFC South. Flip the script and take the extra point or two of value you're getting after the Bears stunk up the joint on Sunday.
💰 $20 to win $19.05
Texans +1.0
Straight up ATS (-110)
I liked what I saw from Houston's defense last week. That game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Colts looked decent against Jacksonville for like 40 minutes, but I'm not a believer. Especially after seeing Richardson get banged up at the end of the game Sunday. Give me the home dog in an ugly division game.
💰 $20 to win $18.18
Falcons +1.5
Straight up ATS (-115)
I think the Falcons are kind of fun. It's not very fun to put money on Desmond Ridder, but I don't think he'll need to do much in this one. The Packers are notoriously awful at stopping the run, and the Falcons quietly have the best running back duo in the league. This would be a great teaser play, but we're taking a week off from those considering last week's disaster.
💰 $20 to win $17.39
Bills -9.5
Straight up ATS (-110)
I have been listening to the "Bills are done" takes for 48 hours and I'm sick of it. Yes, that means you, my esteemed co-author! I don't particularly care about the Bills one way or another. I'm just not going to overreact to what just happened in a super emotional Monday Night Football game in Week 1. The Jets defense had something to prove after Rodgers went down, and they played absolutely lights-out, pissed-off football. Now it will be Josh Allen's turn to do the same in this get-right home blowout spot.
💰 $20 to win $18.18
Panthers +3.0
Straight up ATS (-102)
This is such a stinky pick. I love it. Who is going to take this lousy Panthers team who lost by two touchdowns to Desmond Ridder? I am. The Saints fooled people last week. They played against Ryan Tannehill who completed just 47% of his passes, threw 3 picks, and scored no touchdowns. And they still only won by a point. Time to fade the Saints. So yes, I am going to take another disgusting decrepit home underdog in division.
💰 $20 to win $19.61
Kirk's Picks
$138.56 available to bet this week +$38.56 last week $138.56 in the bank
I took Week 1 from Matt by betting against da Bears but failed to gain an immediate, insurmountable lead. With my small win last week I have a bit more play money to light on fire. I'll still be taking some long shots, I've got that Dawg mentality after all. The timing just has to be right. It's all scripted anyway.
Week 2 has plenty of stay away games, so you know, I'll probably stay away from those.
Eagles -6.5 (-102)
Straight up ATS
Now, having said that, I usually try to stay way from a bet on the home team, but the spread has dipped under 7 and I just got to have it. I'm sure we've played them since, but the last game I remember against the Vikings is St. Nick slinging it left, right and center. But I expected nothing less from Philadelphia's famed cocksman.
This week I'm looking for Jalen Hurts to continue that storied 5 year old tradition and have an explosive performance as a statement win after the Eagles somewhat messy win over the Patriots in poor conditions from Week 1.
💰 $75 to win $73.53.
8 Leg Parlay (+25597)
1 PM Special - Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0), Detroit Lions (-5.5), Green Bay Packers (-1.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5), Houston Texans (Moneyline), Baltimore Ravens (Moneyline)
Here we go - I got a bit of extra dough to play with and I think I may start taking weekly cracks at all the 1PM slate of games for a few reasons.
I love stupid payouts. All games are at 1PM so if I'm totally screwed in one matchup right off the bat, I move on and remove it from my mind. No winning multiple early games then sweating a 4:25 or night game for a parlay, fuck that.
On the actual picks of note - I feel like Houston is a depressing football team that's due for a positive moment. That's the expert analysis right there. And for the Ravens over the Bengals, Joe Burrow did not look right. I think it takes more time for him to right the ship or insert land based metaphor here if that's your thing.
💰 $25.56 to win $6,568.27
Same Game Parlay (+2048)
Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TD's - Jalen Hurts Under 248.5 Passing Yards - Justin Jefferson Under 94.5 Yards - Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 Yards - Philly Moneyline
Shit I may have a problem - I CAN'T QUIT YOU BIRDS.
Dumping more money on the Eagles may not be the wisest but hey, that's gambling baby.
I'm thinking Hurts throws some darts in the red zone but this is an Eagles team getting back to some ground and pound from last year. Hell, it's just money in a digital application anyway, if I can't touch something it's not real.
💰 $38.00 to win $778.43
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