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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get to the picks and the final week of action in our race to the bottom.
Matt's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$52.00 last week +$2.37 for the season
Well, folks — here it is. It all comes down to Week 18. As he has done so many times before at the blackjack table, Kirk has come back from the dead and has a chance to actually win this thing. I assume he's going to take quite a swing, so I'll have to hold my breath and hope it doesn't work out. Here's hoping I add a bit more profit to my meager total. Otherwise, next year I'm doing this:
Titans +3.5
Straight Up ATS (-112)
The last opportunity we might ever have to take Vrabel as a home underdog in the division. Let's grab it. There are rumors that he won't be returning to the Titans, so he will have his guys (who love him) fired up for this one. On the other hand, the Jaguars are super banged up, with reports of Trevor Lawrence needing help to get out of bed in the morning due to his injury. But he's a gamer (and former pro wrestler) so he's forcing himself back into this important game with playoff implications. That makes me like the Titans more, as a gimpy Lawrence doesn't really scare me.
💰 $19.00 to win $16.96
Panthers +4.5
Straight Up ATS (-105)
The Panthers are coming off an embarrassing shut out loss, a public tantrum by their owner, and a disaster of a season in which they clearly picked the wrong QB and NEVER LED in the 4th quarter of any game they played (their two wins came from field goals as time expired). The vibes have never been lower. The stank has never been stankier. Give it to me, baby.
💰 $19.00 to win $18.10
Bears +3.0
Straight Up ATS (-115)
The Bears hate the Packers almost as much as I do. Justin Fields knows this is his last chance to prove himself to Chicago's brass and convince them not to draft his replacement. As has come out during the week, his teammates love him and want him to stay. They will be all kinds of fired up to go into Lambeau Field and play spoiler. This is their Super Bowl. I like Da Bears.
💰 $19.00 to win $18.10
Bills -3.0
Straight Up ATS (-104)
For the final time this season, here's Uncle Jack:
Sorry I haven't been emailing you for the past couple of weeks. Christmas got a bit chaotic. I'm pretty sure there was something funny about the mushrooms Colin put in the stuffing. You're aunt cried the whole holiday break, even after I got her a new book of Suduku puzzles. I'm excited to get the Firestick hooked back up so I can watch the Kyle Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa showdown for the AFC East. As you know, I've respected Tua ever since I ran into him at the Buffalo Wild Wings in Milford and watched him put down 70 mango habanero wings. Lying Tony from the plant says it was just the guy who works the register at the Champs Sports across the promenade. But I know the truth. Anyway, I know you have a huge bet on the Bills to win the AFC East, but I think you should hedge. Maybe if I'd have been a bit more responsible when I was your age, I wouldn't have a son whose laptop is nothing but Noam Chomsky ebooks and AOC feet pics. He didn't even celebrate the New Year with us because he claims the ancient Mesopotamuses or some crap like that originally waited for the new moon nearest the autumn equinox. See? Told you those munshrooms were funny. Okay, gotta go make Susie some tea before she starts crying again. Take my advice, young man, put a bunch on Dolphins +3 and try to middle. It's the smart thing to do!
Fuck no. No hedge. Go Bills.
💰 $19.00 to win $18.27
Giants +5.5
Straight Up ATS (-122)
And for the final time this season, here's friend-of-the-site Tyrod Taylor
happy new year, motherfuckas. how'd you like that cover last week, matt? did just enough to help you out while not fuckin' up our draft position. all part of the plan, baby. what's goin' on with you, brother? i saw it was your only win on the slate. hard to say who's been colder lately — you or the eagles. speakin' of those mangy birds, if they think they comin' into my house, makin' me stop listenin' to the scandoval podcast, and walkin' out with a win, they're fuckin' crazy. one more week of this b.s. and i'm leavin' this shithole secaucus behind for good. honestly i wish the team doc had stabbed me this year instead. but, hey, at least i had stories about kirk's balls to give me a few laughs along the way. thanks for the memories fellas and good luck wagerin' on the playoffs. i hear you're headin' up to best balls phil's cabin to watch the championship games. don't burn the place down. and hey, guess who won't be playin'? the eagles.
Let's go Tyrod!
💰 $19.00 to win $15.77
WTF Parlay
All five picks above (+2366)
In honor of my esteemed co-author, here's a dumb long shot to cap things off.
💰 $5.00 to win $118.31
Kirk's Picks
$388.70 available to bet this week +$288.70 last week -$387.85 for the season
It all comes down to this, a final shot at overtaking Matt and flipping this awful script. Since I'm carrying forward last weeks profit I have a real chance to catch him. I know he's going to be desperate and will have to lay some of his own long shot bets. That means this is no time to lay off the gas, I need to be as aggressive as possible. If I lose all my money this week big deal, I lost more in week 13 when the Cowboys, or really DK Metcalf, fucked me with his stand out game of the year.
Fuck you DK!
The Reckoning Same Game Parlay (+226)
Ravens +4, Over 35.5
I've stared at this slate of games for a long time trying to find value. I'm pretty sure I've spotted it first over all the sharps in America at this point. That's how hot I'm running after one week in a row.
Don't audit that statement, (fuck you Tom) it's verified.
Anyway, even with the Ravens starting Tyler Huntley this week and being home dogs to the Steelers, this has all the makings of the biggest trap game ever seen on this side of the Missisisisiisspee.
First, both the Steelers and Ravens have been hitting their Over's of late (I know Lamar as the shoe in for MVP is a big part of that just bear with me please).
But there is a crucial element to this game. That element is Mike Tomlin is about to drop the biggest test game of his career. People have touted his record over the years about him always avoiding a losing season during the regular season. Big fucking whoop! Pundits are finally starting to ask themselves, does that mean anything at all? No! It doesn't! Only a Super Bowl win means anything. Look at the Giants with Eli. Plenty of crappy seasons mixed in between and after two of the greatest MVP playoff performances by Eli to beat the Patriots twice. That's all that people remember. Giants fans gladly take some of those down years for those two wins. Look at the Rams. They mortgaged everything at the time for a chance to win one, and did.
It's worse for a fanbase to lock them into a purgatory where they don't know if they're content or depressed. These things need resolution, and Mike Tomlin has acted as a stopper on all of Pittsburgh's emotional catharsis that they so clearly need.
This team reeks of mediocrity which I would argue is the greatest sin in professional football. There is no hope of victory today, and no hope of victory over the horizon with a new franchise QB to champion their dreams forward. They are in a quagmire of their own making and the Football Gods will have their satisfaction.
Prepare yourselves for the reckoning.
💰 $350.00 to win $793.80
Multi Game Parlay (+4876)
All Anytime Touchdown Scorers - Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, DJ Moore, Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert
I've hit on two big ATS parlays this season, why not a third?
No matter how this bet and the one above go, I'm satisfied. I'm leaving it all out there.
But also I'd really like to win, please and thank you.
💰 $38.70 to win $1,887.22
Bonus Pick
$100.00 available to bet this week +$357.39 last week +$1,136.69 for the season
No Thursday game this week so we're gonna do an Underdog Moneyline Round Robin (3 ways). If all five of these win, this pays around $1800. Then it gets slightly less profitable if 4 win and even less profitable if 3 win. If less than 3 win, we lose everything. Let's have a bit of fun with our bankroll and see if some of the spoiler teams can come through for us.
Falcons ML Panthers ML Titans ML Bears ML Giants ML
💰 $10.00 (x10 bets) = $100.00
Thanks to everyone who followed along this inaugural season. See you in the playoffs. We'll do some dumb bets for that too.
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!