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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get to the picks and see if Kirk can land a K.O. or more likely trip and fall on his own balls.
Matt's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$61.44 last week +$109.85 for the season
When things get hard, you have a choice to make. You can panic or you can stay the course. I've had three pretty rough weeks in a row and Kirk lucked his way back into contention. So will I change things up and start taking long shots? Of course not. I'm going to stick to the strategy that helped me build a big lead. This week, it's the tried and true formula. Five games against the spread, most of them ugly dogs, no teasers or gimmicks. Hold your nose, because these are some stinky picks.
Commanders +9.5
Straight up ATS (-110)
In my Week 12 recap, I warned you.
I hate them. I can't wait to bet them +9.5 against the Dolphins this week.
Well folks, here we are. I just can't resist taking a huge home underdog after they embarrassed themselves on national television the week prior. All of the trends say that this is a great spot for Washington. I'm just going to have to sweat out watching one of the worst defenses in the league play against Tyreek Hill. What could go wrong?
Honestly, I think the Commanders are not so bad on offense and can hopefully score enough points to keep this close. Also — how seriously do we think the Dolphins are taking this game? They have a comfortable lead in the division and will look to cruise through their next three weeks of crappy opponents (Commanders, Titans, and Jets).
💰$20.00 to win $18.18
Jets +1.5
Straight up ATS (-105)
Speaking of crappy opponents, give me Tim Boyle over Desmond Ridder in this quarterback clash of the century. What was more disgusting on Black Friday — the leftover cranberry sauce or the 99-yard Hail Mary pick six by the Jets?
This is perfect. Everyone has been making fun of the Jets all week after an island-game embarrassment. Much like we did with the Commanders, we come back and take them the next week when they are super undervalued. Plus, Aaron Rodgers hitting the practice field this week has to have the locker room fired up. I'm not really sure why he is rushing back to play in a meaningless Week 17 game for his soon-to-be mathematically-eliminated 6-win team, but hey, for one week, the motivational impact is going to help push this wager into the win column.
💰$20.00 to win $19.05
Titans +1.5
Straight up ATS (-115)
Jonathan Taylor will be missing this game for the Colts. Let's bet against the NFL's most stylish man in Gardner Minshew, as he'll have to face an extremely physical Mike Vrabel defense outdoors in nasty weather. This will be a low-scoring battle in the trenches between two teams who aren't that far apart talent-wise.
To recap, so far we're wagering on Sam Howell, Tim Boyle, and Will Levis. Oh man, this is so disgusting. I love it.
💰$20.00 to win $17.39
49ers -2.5
Straight up ATS (-118)
Okay, after picking all of those awful teams, let's finally pull the trigger on a squad that is actually good at football. This will be a rematch of last year's NFC Championship in which the 49ers lost all of their quarterbacks to injury and ultimately fell to the Eagles. You think they haven't had this one circled on the calendar all year? Honestly, this is probably an NFC Championship preview again for this year. Both of these teams are very impressive.
However, the Eagles have been playing with fire for weeks now. They really really made me sweat picking them in my Survivor Contest last week, going deep into overtime before pulling off the victory against the Bills. I think this is the week it falls apart for them a bit. Their whole team is banged up, especially the defense who was on the field for 95 snaps in Week 12.
This pick is honestly no knock against the Eagles (who I hate), but I just think it's a bad spot for them. Plus, I don't think they need the game as much. They have a 2-game lead in the race for the top seed in the NFC. Even if they drop this, they'll still have a leg up on San Francisco. They also have two games against the Giants, and one against the Cardinals left on their schedule. They are fine.
The 49ers, meanwhile, will be hungry to prove that they are the NFC's best team.
💰$20.00 to win $16.95
Packers +6.0
Straight up ATS (-110)
I don't think anyone was happier to see the Packers pull off the upset over the Lions on Thanksgiving than my Uncle Jack. I received this email at 2:24 PM on Thanksgiving Day:
Woohoo! Did you see how bad Goof was today??? His tiny little hands coughed it up not once... not twice... but THREE times!!! That's karma for cyberbullying Tony's niece so bad that she had to transfer out of Cal and go to cosmetology school. Tony says she cries every time she gives a manicure to someone with small hands and still can't use the internet. That's why he doesn't get the uTube TV in his house and has to listen to the games on the radio. Anyway, hope you bet Jeremiah Love and the Packers today. He still reminds me of a blank sheet of computer paper, but now it's like that high-gloss kind you print you're resume out on. Can you teach you're cousin Colin how to do that? His refusal to participate in the "capitalist agenda" is really infringing on my alone time with you're aunt (wink, wink). So if we could get him and this god awful tofurkey out of my house sometime in 2024 that would be great. I'm taking the $24.82 I just won on the Packers moneyline to Cracker Barrel with me right after this. Chicken-fried steak and a Wild Turkey on the rocks to celebrate. Susie doesn't want to come, so she can stay home and eat mashed mung beans with the hippie and do her Suduku puzzles until I get back for all I care. But since I know there will be no hanky panky tonight anyway, maybe I'll go listen to the night game on the radio with Tony. At least he has some real food at his house, even if he doesn't have a computer anymore because of that bastard Goof. Happy thanksgiving and go packers!
So yeah, the Packers are looking better lately. The Chiefs are always a bit shaky as big favorites on the road. Let's take the points!
💰$20.00 to win $18.18
Kirk's Picks
$560.28 available to bet this week +$460.28 last week -$183.23 for the season
Now is the time. Time to go for the throat.
I'm risking it all this week of course. I have a chance to jump out of the red and into the black. I'm taking it. I could play it safe and try to chip away at Matt's lead now that I've stopped the major bleeding. What's the fun in that? I came to gamble and if I let my prior week win sit unused any advantage is sacrificed heading into next week.
Plus, if I minimize my losses and still lose to Matt at the end of our competition guess what? I still have to eat a fucking Applebee's steak. They are gray. Outside and in.
Cowboys (-8.5)
Straight up ATS (-115)
Usually I would hesitate to place such a 'major wager' on a team that just kicked the absolute shit out of an opponent with the fear they may sleepwalk their next game.
I'm going to take the risk as I think Dallas still has something to prove. They will still be playing for seeding and since they played on Thanksgiving, this is not a short rest Thursday night game for them.
The line also sat at -9 for a couple of days before moving down to -8.5 which locked in my decision.
I also don't think Seattle has any semblance of their shit together. They look lost and frustrated with one another. Geno looks nothing like last years pre-contract version and the offense seemingly has no identity if the long ball to DK Metcalf isn't working. Guess what? The ball needs to be on the sideline, not outside of the sideline for DK to have a chance to catch it.
Dallas's defense is healthy and I think their secondary will only put Geno through his paces even more. The offense was firing on all cylinders last week and I'm hoping they've locked onto it now for a playoff push.
This is it. This will sink or swim my NFL gambling season, my Oddballs season, and probably my marriage.
At least I won't have to sweat it out throughout the weekend.
💰 $560.28 to win $509.35
Bonus Pick
$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week +376.67 for the season
We're riding with the @DanGambleAI algorithm again this week, which has still been very profitable despite our attempts to sabotage it by adding our own losing legs to the parlays it recommends. This week, we still haven't learned our lesson, and we're combining a few things the algo likes into one parlay.
Note: This isn't counting towards our weekly total. Just a camaraderie bet to show that we're still friends despite the trash talk.
Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
Tony Pollard 3+ receptions Tyler Lockett 25+ receiving yards Tony Pollard 40+ rushing yards
💰 $100.00 to win $232.46
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
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