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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get to the picks and see if Kirk can build any sort of momentum after last week's humble win.
Matt's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$33.78 last week +$209.79 for the season
Last week's loss definitely knocked me down a peg, but I'm still enjoying a commanding lead over Kirk. It's not time to start feeling sorry for myself. At least I don't root for the worst team in the league. Only the SECOND worst team in the league.
Anyway, I refuse to bet on Tommy DeVito and my man Tyrod isn't speaking to me anymore after Uncle Jack left him off of his QB Power Rankings. So let's stop talking about the stinky Giants and get back into the win column this week. Here are the winning wagers...
Dolphins -12.5
Straight up ATS (-115)
The Raiders are a very bad team. Their record is misleading, inflated by the motivational boost of a much-needed coaching change. This week the shine wears off. All the Raiders can really do is rush the passer, but Tua has been getting rid of the ball extremely fast. He'll be able to negate Maxx Crosby's impact with quick throws to Hill and Waddle who should have no problem getting open against the shaky Vegas secondary. I still have my doubts about Miami, but they love to pound terrible teams into the earth's crust. I expect them to absolutely run over the Raiders this weekend and I have no qualms about laying such a big number.
Also, check out what Tua did during the bye week. Remember when girls from your fourth grade class would come back from their Caribbean vacation with beaded hair?
Looks dope. Dolphins by 50.
💰$34.50 to win $30.00
Bears +7.5
Straight up ATS (-105)
Justin Fields will be coming back to start in this one, which should give the Bears a lift on offense. They've been looking a lot better on defense lately too, averaging under 20 points against per game in their last 6 contests.
As Kirk points out in his square pick of the Lions, there is some fishiness with the line in this one. I liked the explanation I saw from WalterFootball.com:
Justin Fields has been announced as the starter, causing this line to plummet to +7.5. I don’t think it’ll cross over +7 because that’ll open up the sports books to be middled. They could be trapped with a bad line on Detroit. The sharps have recognized this and have bet the Bears heavily.
I'll take the points here in a divisional matchup, especially with the Lions looking ahead to their Thanksgiving game that will kick off just 92 hours after this one.
💰$31.50 to win $30.00
Broncos -2.5
Straight up ATS (-110)
The Broncos have looked a lot better lately, beating the Chiefs and Bills. Russell Wilson has stopped dicking around so much, is getting rid of the ball quickly, and looks more confident than at the beginning of the year. Their defense is also flying around, looking especially good against mobile quarterbacks. They seem to have really found a formula for slowing down the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. And now they have the poor man's version of those two guys with Joshua Dobbs coming into Mile High on Sunday night. Dobbs has been a great story and has made the Vikings fun to watch even without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. But I think this is the week the fun ends and the Vikings are due for a letdown.
💰$33.00 to win $30.00
Moneyline Parlay (+1568)
Panthers
Cardinals
This week's spite bet, inspired by Uncle Jack's weekly email.
Here's some free money you can use on you're site. Bryce Harper on the Panthers is such a bad QB. He's got even smaller hands than Goof and can't make a big plays to safe his life. Honor your country (unlike your ungrateful cousin) and take AMERICA'S team the Cowboys who are gearing up for a championship run. Is there anything T.J. Shroud can't do?! In the last TOO WEEKS ALONE he has passed for 826 yards, thrown 6 TDs, gotten 2 holes in one, eaten 3 dozen raw eggs, received 1 presidential medal of freedom (the one smart think BRandon has done), did a five-star Suduku puzzle in under 5 minutes, and benched 405 lbs. You think he'd be tired after all that but then he got up Monday morning and signed autographs for the troops. True American hero. Take Houston who have been waiting for a chance to expose ANOTHER Maricopa County fraud — this time in the Arizona Carindals.
Yeah... let's go ahead and fade that as usual.
💰$1.00 to win $16.69
Kirk's Picks
$145.25 available to bet this week +$45.25.00 last week -$498.26 for the season
Now that I've had my first win since week 3 of the season, I don't want to go back to the poor slop I forced myself to eat until I could do anything positive. I need to win, the gambling itch is back in full force and I want Matt to suffer as a result. He needs to be brought low. I know what I need to do.
Man these mood swings week to week are probably not healthy. I may need to look into that.
Lions (-5.5)
1st Half Spread (-110)
I'm starting to see what Bill Simmons was talking about recently with the Gambling Books attempting to get leverage over the bettors with some wonky odds for the opening spread. This spread is currently at -7.5 but pays out -120. There is some tom foolery afoot so I'm avoiding the spread. I also feel with Fields coming back that line may be too high for a Lions defense that has honestly been hit or miss depending if they can hit the QB at all. They got exposed in an epic game against the Chargers last week who have more weapons than the Bears but anything over 7 points concerns me.
So with all that considered I'm taking a chance and gambling on the Lions 1st half spread. Hopefully coming back from a thumb injury Fields takes a while to get going.
💰 $100.00 to win $90.91
Multigame Parlay Straight Up ATS +272
Los Angeles Chargers -3, Buffalo Bills -7
Let's try a simple two game parlay this week as clearly, 3 is not my number.
These are two get right games for the Chargers and Bills. The Chargers face off against Jordan Love, a terrible QB. The Bills face off against Zach Wilson, a terrible QB.
Now or never, do or die for each teams playoff hopes. I think the Chargers cover away easily with the temps in Lambeau still reasonable but I'll be most curious if Josh Allen, who by yet another terrible turnover performance cost his coordinator his job, feels any sort of remorse and gets his shit together. He was a family man Josh, you monster.
💰 $45.25 to win $123.41
Bonus Pick
We're 1 for 2 on our bonus picks but up $576.67 in profit. Not too shabby. This week, we are looking to pad the wallets and tail the AI same game parlay again.
We're also gonna take the under onto it. Primetime unders have been hot and these are supposed to be long shots, so this gets us up to +551.
Note: This isn't counting towards our weekly total. Just a camaraderie bet to show that we're still friends despite the trash talk.
Keaton Mitchell over 24.5 rushing yards
Odell Beckham Jr. over 26.5 receiving yards Tyler Boyd over 24.5 receiving yards Under 46.5 total points
💰 $100.00 to win $551.26
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!