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Were we right about anything we thought before the season? Let's check in on our over/under picks, rookie quarterback rankings, and more!
We're about a quarter of the way through the NFL season. Although the 17-game schedule makes dividing by four a huge pain in the ass. Did anyone really want this? Can we just go back to 16 games and things being evenly divisible? It's agitating my OCD. Anyway, here's some stuff we said before the year started. Let's see how wrong we were!
NFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cowboys — 10.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Giants — 6.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Under Looking good! |
Eagles — 10.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Commanders — 6.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Best Bet
Matt: Eagles over (Looking bad!)
Make sense that the only pick in this division that is trending in the wrong direction is the one that I made my "best bet". I'm not sure why I was so confident in Nick Sirianni. Kirk and our buddy Tom are gassing up their cars to drive him to the airport as we speak.
Kirk: Commanders over (Looking good!)
This Over is the only thing I have going for me this football season. It's also the only future I actually dipped my toe into this year by betting 5 units on. But don't judge me! I've never bet futures before so I was just a scared little man, lost in the wilderness of gambling.
I shouldn't have been afraid seeing how Jayden Daniels has turned into a top 5 QB after such a short period of time. I know he's in the same division as my Eagles, but guess what, the Eagles stink!
At least I have something to root for this year. He is making that team have fun, and it's been exciting to watch their high powered offense. As predicted, Dan Quinn has a done a phenomenal job coming in and turning around their shitbox franchise. Well done Dan.
NFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bears — 8.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Who knows! | Under Who knows! |
Lions — 10.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Packers — 9.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Vikings — 7.5 wins Pace: 17 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Vikings under (Looking REALLY bad!)
Hahaha. In my defense, can you blame me for not trusting Sam Darnold? I feel like maybe he reads this website and is overachieving just to spite me. Picking the Vikings to be the worst team in football and then having them go on a Super Bowl run would be classic Ill & Odd gambling advice.
Kirk: Lions over (Looking good!)
NFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Falcons — 9.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Panthers — 5.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Saints — 7.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Looking bad! | Over Looking good! |
Buccaneers — 7.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Under Looking bad! | Over Looking good! |
Best Bet
Matt: Falcons over (Looking bad!)
Eh, I'll reserve judgement on this one. They still get to play the Panthers twice and the Giants once, so that's three easy wins right there. If they go .500 in the rest of their games, that puts them over. Barring another injury to Cousins, I think he'll heat up down the stretch.
Kirk: Panthers under (Looking good!)
The introduction of the Red Rocket (Andy Dalton), was terrifying for this pick. For one week.
Turns out this team, most notably the defense, is still horrible. Also the division is sneaky not terrible this year. So I think this one is safe for the moment.
NFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cardinals — 7.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Rams — 8.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
49ers — 11.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Seahawks — 7.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Cardinals under (Looking good!)
I don't feel great about this pick because the Cardinals have been way more fun and competent than I was expecting. Fortunately for my wallet, hanging close in games against good teams does not count towards your win total. It's possible they will make me sweat this one late in the year.
Kirk: Rams over (Looking bad!)
This is a division of biases for me. I don't really understand why as it's not the NFC East but here we are. I've disliked Seattle since I had to stare at Pete Carroll furiously chewing his cud. The 49ers are a bunch of divas who turn into a fat pumpkin. Dream boat Sean McVay has had his team ravaged by injuries and is missing Aaron Donald's presence on defense (shocking!). The Cardinals are the Cardinals and I'm dumb.
At least Kliff Kingsbury's revenge game buffeted my Commanders future.
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
After 4 Weeks | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | Vikings | Eagles | Lions |
Division Winners | Buccaneers Commanders Seahawks | 49ers Packers Falcons | Cowboys Falcons Rams |
Wild Cards | Lions Falcons Saints | Lions Rams Bears | 49ers Buccaneers Eagles |
Best QB on a New Team
Cousins (ATL), Williams (CHI), McCarthy (MIN), Daniels (WAS)
Matt: Caleb Williams (CHI)
Neither of us picked Daniels despite both of us loving the Commanders over. Sometimes we're not very good at this!
Kirk: Cousins (ATL)
I was wrong. Cousins has looked better in recent weeks now that he has some semblance of legs underneath him.
But this contest looks to be over - Jayden Daniels is firmly in the lead.
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Vikings
Kirk: Bears
The Jury is still out!
We shall see. We...shall...see....
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Commanders
Oh wow, this one has a chance for sure! Washington is on pace for 12.8 wins, which would be 6.3 higher than their projection. The Vikings will give them a run for their money, but like, come on... it's Sam fucking Darnold.
Kirk: Rams
Injury! That fickle bitch!
I'm hopeful of a second half resurgence as with last year. If the talent can get back and get healthy, they have a shot.
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
The Eagles will go undefeated during this stretch
They come back from the bye week and get to face the Browns, Giants, Bengals, and Jaguars. They will be favored in three of those and I'm going to continue shitting on the Bengals. I think it would be funny if this happened because it will give all my Eagles fans hope before kicking them in the nuts during the playoffs.
The Vikings will fall out of first place in the NFC North
In fact, they might not even be in second place. The Lions and Packers have easy schedules coming up. The Vikings, on the other hand, have to play in a crapshoot game in London against the unpredictable Jets, then they get the Lions, Rams, and Colts. It's not exactly a gauntlet, but if Darnold turns back into Darnold, they could have issues.
Matthew Stafford will get traded
The Rams are having a season from hell with all of the injuries. Sean McVay and company will look for a bold way to rebuild and get a bunch of assets. I'd keep an eye on Miami and Carolina if either of them stay afloat for another couple of weeks. We almost never get cool midseason NFL trades, so maybe this is wishful thinking.
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
#1. The Eagles Fire Nick Sirianni.
#2. The Seahawks go 4-1 over this stretch.
They've rounded into form and, hand up, Geno Smith has been playing excellent ball. I expect them to become a real problem.
#3. Sam Darnold becomes the front runner for MVP.
HUH?!?
AFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bills — 10.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Dolphins — 9.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Patriots — 4.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Jets — 9.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Dolphins over (Looking bad!)
Things might be bleak, but at least the Dolphins have Skylar Thompson, Snoop Huntley, and Tim Boyle waiting in the quarterback room. Oh wait! That's awful. Also, the shine has FOR SURE worn off on McDaniels. He's replaced Kevin O'Connell as goofball coach of the year so far.
Kirk: Bills Under (Looking bad!)
Sometimes spite bets don't work out. Sometimes they do. I'm not saying if this one is a spite bet and I'm not not saying that either. You get it.
AFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Ravens — 10.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Looking good! | Under Looking good! |
Bengals — 10.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Browns — 8.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Steelers — 8.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Bengals under (Looking good!)
Starting out 0-3 will certainly make it a tall task for Cincy to get to 11 wins. In case you suck at math, that means they need to go 11-3 the rest of the way. They have a lot of easy games outside of the division, so you can't rule it out. Especially if Burrow starts eating that mom's spaghetti.
Kirk: Bengals over (Looking bad!)
Please see Matt's response above. Thanks for saving me some time this week hombre!
AFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Texans — 9.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Colts — 8.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Who knows! | Over Who knows! |
Jaguars — 8.5 wins Pace: 0 wins | Under Looking good! | Under Looking good! |
Titans — 6.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Colts over (Who knows!)
The Colts have been a rollercoaster so far. Anthony Richardson is an adventure every time he touches the ball. And unfortunately for him, that adventure was the kind that gets you stranded in the woods with Joe Flacco. Whether it's Richardson or Flacco going forward, this won't be a boring bet to follow and will probably come down to the last week of the season.
Kirk: Jaguars under (Looking good!)
I'm really kicking myself I didn't have the balls to place more than 1 futures bet this offseason. I liked both the Commanders over and the Raiders over the most, but this one was staring me in the face and I didn't pull the trigger. I'm not sure I'm even a man anymore. Well, at least we'll always have this (courtesy of Matt):
AFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Broncos — 5.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Chiefs — 11.5 wins Pace: 17 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Raiders — 6.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Chargers — 8.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Under Who knows! | Over Who knows! |
Best Bet
Matt: Raiders over (Looking good!)
This bet was a business decision.
Kirk: Raiders over (Looking good!)
And
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
After 4 Weeks | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | Chiefs | Chiefs | Bengals |
Division Winners | Texans Steelers Bills | Bills Browns Colts | Jets Colts Chargers |
Wild Cards | Jets Colts Ravens | Texans Dolphins Raiders | Chiefs Bills Ravens |
Best QB on a New Team
We won't count Aaron Rodgers here, since technically he won't be making his New York Jets debut and would likely be the easy pick in this category. That leaves us with some limited choices here...
Brissett/Maye (NE), Wilson/Fields (PIT), Nix (DEN), Minshew (LV)
Matt: Wilson/Fields (PIT)
I think I was right? Fields has been pretty good for the Steelers. He hasn't had to do very much, but neither has anyone else on this list. Bo Nix won a game with 60 yards passing, so if you want to argue for him then take it up with Eli Manning.
Kirk: Gardner Minshew (LV)
I think even though their coming off a loss, Justin Fields takes the win for the 1st Quarter of the season (it's not even a Quarter anymore because of 17 games what the fuck!!!).
Minshew has been fine and may still be the best bet here over the course of the season. I'm only worried about the Steelers QB given the circumstances here.
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Bengals
Nothing would make me laugh harder than watching the wheels fall off of this team. I don't know why, I just find their failures amusing at this point. It's definitely in play as they are a full 10 wins from hitting their over.
Kirk: Steelers
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Colts
Yeah, this one looks wrong. The over is in play, but they look like they'll be lucky to get to 9 wins and have a serviceable quarterback who can still walk by the end of the year.
Kirk: Chargers
Nope, and what could I expect with a Harbutt as coach?
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
Davante Adams goes to the Chiefs
Everyone says this will absolutely never happen since the Raiders will never trade with a division rival. Why? That's dumb. The Chiefs have an urgent need and would certainly overpay. You know what's fun to do to your rival? Take a bunch of their draft picks.
The Patriots will go EITHER 4-1 and 1-4 over this stretch; nothing in between
The schedule is a cakewalk with games against the Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Jets, and Titans. Either Drake Maye is great and they surprise some folks, or he's awful and the wheels completely fall off of this poorly-built wagon.
Derek Henry will reach 1000 rushing yards
This guy never runs out of gas. As the weather gets colder, he'll be even harder to tackle. I think the Ravens will be one of those teams that just keeps getting better every week and Henry is going to be a big part of it.
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
#1. The Chargers will go 2-3 over this stretch and lose their starting QB to injury.
#2. Joe Flacco will bring this shitty Colts team into prime position for the playoffs.
#3. The Jets will implode in hilarious fashion.
