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Thank god football is almost back in our lives! To celebrate, here is part one of our 2024 season preview.
Finally, something that can unite us a country! Football is just over a month away from being back in our lives. Soon we'll look forward to Mondays, have a legitimate excuse to drink on Thursdays, and have extra motivation to get all of our Sunday errands done before our date with Scott Hanson. Everything is going to be great!
We will be bringing back our esteemed Oddball contest this season, so look out for that as Week 1 creeps closer. But because our nips are extra hard just thinking about quad boxes, same game parlays, and Andy Reid's crumb-filled mustache, we needed something to tide us over until the action kicks off on September 5th.
So this week, we'll be doing a little NFC preview — win totals, playoff predictions, and a few other superlatives to get us all chubbed up for the 2024 season. We're not sure if we will be making some kind of head-to-head bet on the win totals yet. We probably should since we are degenerates. Maybe we'll announce the stakes during next week's AFC preview. If you have any good ideas for a bet, shoot us an email at hello@illandodd.com.
Let's get this show on the road, shall we?
NFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cowboys — 10.5 wins | Under | Over |
Giants — 6.5 wins | Under | Under |
Eagles — 10.5 wins | Over | Under |
Commanders — 6.5 wins | Over | Over |
Best Bet
Matt: Eagles over
I like Kirk's Commanders over pick for all of the reasons he mentioned. But you're about to read all about that, so I'll do something different and take the Eagles.
Two things can be true. I can absolutely hate the Eagles but also think they have the potential to be the best team in the NFL this year. While the wheels came off the wagon towards the end of last season, they still have one of the best rosters in all of football. And actually, the fact that all of America watched them get beat in a playoff game by Baker Mayfield makes me love this over even more. I love going against public perception, and how often can you do that while still backing an absolutely loaded team?
The addition of Saquon Barkley is going to make me absolutely miserable and will make Philly's already-explosive offense even more dynamic. Nobody has figured out how to stop the tush push (and the league decided not to ban it... must not have consulted JD Vance on that decision). Also Jake Elliott's 60+ yard leg means they are rarely out of field goal range with the game on the line.
On the defensive side, the team will see significant improvements with the acquisitions of Vic Fangio, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Devin White, and two early draft picks. Philadelphia is undoubtedly one of the frontrunners for the Super Bowl LIX title.
Their schedule has a few tough games on it (Packers, Bengals, Rams, Ravens), but they should eat up wins in their own division (let's all point and laugh at Dallas as they continue to bungle their roster management and contracts) and they get to play the always-shaky NFC South.
Is this a reverse jinx? Possibly! Is it a bad bet? No way.
Kirk: Commanders over
Dan Quinn is the new head coach of the Washington D.C. Washington Football Team Commanders. He is a man that knows no joy outside of football. Even with football that joy is minimal. Look at this man.
I say all of this to say this guy is a hard ass. No team is in more need of a hard ass than the Commanders. Even in a tough division I see this team exceeding the low win total in a 17 game season.
In recent years he has transformed the Cowboys defense into a stout, takeaway driven animal that I never enjoyed watching when the Birds played them. Last year, and really, many years before that, Ron Rivera had checked the fuck out as head coach. Dan is a major upgrade.
They'll have a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels who has the potential to be electric. Sure he could see his ass destroyed as so many rookies do when stepping up into the NFL. But I'm a gambler and I feel good deep down in my plums taking the over.
NFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bears — 8.5 wins | Over | Under |
Lions — 10.5 wins | Over | Over |
Packers — 9.5 wins | Over | Over |
Vikings — 7.5 wins | Under | Under |
Best Bet
Matt: Vikings under
I just don't see it with Minnesota and the quarterback combo of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy. Call me crazy but that doesn't feel like 8 wins to me. Head Coach Kevin O'Connell seems like kind of a weirdo in those Netflix shows and I'm not ready to give him the car keys to a win total bet this year. He kind of reminds me of that dude at a party wearing a vest who's sister dated a guy from your hometown and so he just starts naming random people and asking if you know them over and over again until you fake an emergency appendectomy so you can go home.
Obviously, Justin Jefferson is awesome. But see above. Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy have to throw him the ball. Same with Jordan Addison who will have a hard time building on an impressive freshman season with those two clowns under center. I guess upgrading from Alexander Mattinson to Aaron Jones is a decent move, but anybody who has been saddled with Jones in fantasy knows to be weary of the red flag next to his name on Sunday morning.
Weeks 2-9 are going to be hellacious for the Purple People Eaters as they battle the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars in succession. A lucky version of this team wins, what, two of those games? Maybe not even. Tough division, tough schedule, thin roster, Head Coach with crazy eyes and a "I can't wait to talk to you about Ethereum" smile. Take the under.
Kirk: Lions over
People continue to disrespect the Lions who I think will be in the best team in the NFC this year. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have invigorated this team and turned the culture around.
Many who know me know I can be a cynical asshole at times. But I do believe in culture. I've worked at enough jobs at this point to know the shitty ones can feel like a weight around your neck that gets heavier on the drive in to the office and only lighter after work and halfway back to home and a cold beer.
This Lions team is fun, having fun, and continuing to be aggressive no matter the situation. I love watching this team.
(Dan Campbell pregame reenactment)
NFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Falcons — 9.5 wins | Over | Over |
Panthers — 5.5 wins | Over | Under |
Saints — 7.5 wins | Under | Over |
Buccaneers — 7.5 wins | Under | Over |
Best Bet
Matt: Falcons over
Man, I sort of hate locking this one in because it is quite chalky. As the only team in this division with any realistic shot at being a contender, the public is pounding the over.
What else am I supposed to do though? They get 6 games against the lowly Bucs, Saints, and Panthers. They also have the Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, and Giants on the schedule. That is 10 winnable games right there.
They won 7 games last year with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke stinking it up at the quarterback position and a head coach who seemed to actively distain allowing any of his talented offensive players to touch the football. Kirk Cousins under center and Raheem Morris on the sidelines will be massive upgrades. Okay, I'm a bit nervous about a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins on a mangled achilles, but it's still better than Desmond Ridder. Plus, if he can't go, then I actually like Michael Penix coming in behind him. Laugh all you want at that draft pick, but it doesn't hurt to have an exciting rookie backing up a gimpy veteran. Combine capable quarterback play with legitimate game breakers in Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London, and now you've got a winning recipe.
I think this team will put up enough points to rack up double-digit wins. Just don't ask anyone who drafted Kyle Pitts in fantasy the past couple of years...
Kirk: Panthers under
This is a cursed franchise! You've been warned knave! The Football Gods themselves have spurned them and all who follow them.
Last year the totally not thin skinned owner of the Panthers threw a drink on a fan.
Shame on you sir. Well to be fair maybe David is so angry because his team has sucked since 2018.
They've gone 7-9, 5-11, 5-11, 5-12, 7-10, and 2-15 from 2018 through 2023.
Oh what's that? He bought the team in 2018?
BWAHAHAHAHAH
NFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cardinals — 7.5 wins | Under | Over |
Rams — 8.5 wins | Over | Over |
49ers — 11.5 wins | Over | Under |
Seahawks — 7.5 wins | Under | Under |
Best Bet
Matt: Cardinals under
I am Matt, killer of fun. Crapper on dreams. Fader of the sexy pick. The Cardinals were pretty scrappy towards the end of last season when Kyler Murray returned, played better than expected, and led Arizona to upset wins over the Steelers and Eagles. A full season of healthy Kyler, plus the drafting of stud wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., has a lot of people declaring that the Cardinals have a lot of potential this year.
I am sorry to inform you that I will be taking their under. I am not buying in on Murray being bought in or healthy. James Connor can't stay on the field. "Weapons" like Greg Dortch and Trey McBride need to show me a bit more before I'll be a believer. And that's just on the offensive side of the ball.
On defense, this team might be one of the worst in the league (sorry to Budda Baker who has one of the best names in pro sports) and they are going to give up a ton of points. Not a great recipe when you're playing the Rams and 49ers twice. Five of their first six games are against the Bills, Rams, Lions, 49ers, and Packers. That's a murderer's row where I can't find a win for them. Let's say they start out 1-5 or 2-6... what is their path to 8 wins? Count me out. A 1-win Kyler Murray after six weeks will be playing more Halo than an adolescent Kirk McCready and fully neglecting the playbook.
Anyway, I'm sure I'll wind up starting Greg Dortch in fantasy again after everyone on my team gets placed on IR by Week 3.
Kirk: Rams over
The Rams are like the Lions. Another NFC team I enjoy to watch who aren't the 49ers who I hate.
Matthew Stafford is a stud QB who has who I believe is the best WR in the league, Puka Nacua. He is tough as shit and routinely makes yards after the catch look easy. He reminds me of George Kittle in his joy of running people over which is unheard of for a WR.
8.5 wins is way too low for a team that only found it's rhythm in the second half of 2023 and still reached 10 wins.
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
2023 Result | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | 49ers | Eagles | Lions |
Division Winners | Cowboys Lions Buccaneers | 49ers Packers Falcons | Cowboys Falcons Rams |
Wild Cards | Eagles Rams Packers | Lions Rams Bears | 49ers Buccaneers Eagles |
Best QB on a New Team
Cousins (ATL), Williams (CHI), McCarthy (MIN), Daniels (WAS)
Matt: Caleb Williams (CHI)
Kamala Harris is the 2024 nominee for president and we have an NFL starting quarterback who paints his nails pink. Uncle Jack is ready to move to Venezuela. But in all seriousness, let's keep an eye on Caleb Williams here. The fact is, the Bears are fucking loaded at receiver. Williams will have Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet to throw to. They also made some moves to address their woeful offensive line play and I've seen a few rankings that have their pass protection ranked in the top 10 in the NFL this year. I'm not going to sit here and pretend I can dissect their roster moves at tackle, but lets just say that I think this offense looks a lot better than it did last season.
Kirk: Cousins (ATL)
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Vikings
I am predicting a season from hell in Minnesota and expect the Vikings to have one of the worst records in the league. I don't think they get anywhere close to 7.5 wins. They might not even win a single game in their own division. Head Coach (and guy who drinks exotic tea) Kevin O'Connell is on the hot seat for first coach fired. The NFC North is going to be a really tough division and combined with the Vikings penchant for never making even winnable games easy, I could see this being a 2 or 3-win team.
Kirk: Bears
Every year, in every sport, the city of Chicago stands up and says, "This is our year".
And every year, in every other city that matters, every fan stands up and says, "No".
With Caleb Williams coming from USC the people of Chicago think their savior has arrived. I know some insider information as to why this is all for naught. I've heard that the reason the city of Chicago is trapped in a ground hog day of expectation is because of their mayor from 1989 to 2011. That mayor was none other than Richard M. Daley.
It's been alleged that mayor committed a forbidden occult blood ritual to the Old Gods, The Untamed, Cthulhu, The Endless Void, you get the picture. The result of that ritual?
Michael Jordan.
Six Championships.
The cost?
A championship drought that will remain for all time.
Until the sun sets in the east and never rises again in the west.
(NHL and MLB are not recognized by the Old Gods)
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Commanders
This pick might look really silly by Thanksgiving, but I actually really like the dynamic upside that Jayden Daniels brings to this offense. They also acquired Austin Ekeler in the offseason whose receiving prowess out of the backfield will be a nice security blanket for the rookie QB. As Kirk mentioned above, the Dan Quinn factor will mean massive upgrades on defense. Also, their schedule includes favorable matchups against the NFC South and last-place teams from other divisions.
Honorable mention: I'd expect Carolina to be frisky this year with Dave Canales as Head Coach. He brought Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield back from the dead. Let's see what he can do for Bryce Young.
Kirk: Rams
Even though they lost a close in one in last years playoffs (Puka got concussed and Cooper Kupp turned back into a fucking pumpkin) the Rams play exciting, hard ass football. I think they'll be competing this year against the Lions for the top spot to represent the NFC.
I'll be placing large ass bets on both them and the Commanders who I also like to hit their over.
This, is, easy, money.
Allegedly.
Matt's Three Things to Watch
Saquon Barkley
How bad will he destroy Giants fans hopes and dreams in Philadelphia? Probably pretty bad. Healthy Saquon Barkley is electric. It just sucks that Giants fans didn't get to see very much of him. He had some tough injury luck for us and also had to play behind one of the most porous offensive lines in the league. Jumping ship to Philly might not change the injury luck, but it sure as hell will give him a great line and a fantastic run-heavy scheme to exploit. I even read that he was lining up to practice the tush push in place of Jalen Hurts in training camp. I think it's going to be a big year for Saquon and a big year for Giants fans yelling at their television.
Daniel Jones
How bad will he destroy Giants fans hopes and dreams at the Meadowlands? Probably pretty bad. I'm anxious to see how Jones looks coming off of the injury-ravaged 2023 season. After all, he did play well enough to win a playoff game two years ago and ran for 7 touchdowns. This year, he'll have a couple of talented wide receiver targets in rookie Malik Nabers and rare 2023 bright spot Jalin Hyatt. But the reports out of camp have not been great. There's even talk that there might be a QB controversy brewing with second-stringer Drew Lock. Not exactly giving me warm and fuzzy feelings. Oh, and doesn't really matter, but Darren Waller announced his retirement. Hopefully to put out more cringeworthy music videos like this:
Super Bowl hangover for the 49ers?
I really, really struggled when picking the over/under for the Niners. Ultimately, I decided they have too much talent to fade. But I wouldn't be shocked to see them tail off a bit. I have been waiting and waiting (and waiting some more...) for the inevitable Brock Purdy drop off. But maybe he's just actually good and we're all going to need to accept that. History has not been kind to teams following a Super Bowl loss though. And factor in the heartbreaking nature of that game, more questions about Kyle Shanahan's coaching abilities, curses from spiritual shamans, etc. Christian McCaffrey just had a high-profile wedding in Rhode Island. How locked in can he possibly be? I also find George Kittle's schtick in Receiver to be so utterly obnoxious. That's what you call expert sports analysis right there. Anyway, I'll be keeping a close watch on the Niners for signs of a Super Bowl hangover and will start backing the Rams heavily to win the division if I see it.
Kirk's Three Things to Watch
Eagles
You may have noticed I did not pick the Birds to win the East.
I don't blame you for thinking I took down a bottle of brown by myself.
Look, I love the Birds. I've been their biggest fan. I was there right alongside my best friend Tom the entire Super Bowl run. Some would say even more than him I was in it.
But this season....
Let's be honest - they fucking sucked the second half of last year!
Jason Kelce has retired!
Jalen Hurts shows zero emotion win or lose!
The NFC East is always a cluster fuck!
Let's hope for a wildcard berth and some underdog mentality. Otherwise we are fucked.
Baker Mayfield
I'm seeing a trend with the teams I like to watch besides the Birds. They got cocky motherfuckers helming the ship and it makes for fun football.
Baker being good again is great for the game. I'm not sure the Bucs will be that good but I do love me some Baker prop bets. +2500 for some rushing TD's? I'm fucking in.
Kyle Shanahan
Good luck this year 49ers! Rumor has it Brock Purdy will be called back into the Principals office for failing to be Patrick Mahomes. His confidence will be at an all time high.
...We're on to the AFC.
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