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Thank god football is almost back in our lives! To celebrate, here is part one of our 2024 season preview.
We're less than a month away from the NFL season kicking off! To celebrate the triumphant return of online gambling, midweek alcohol, and fantasy podcasts back into our lives, we'll be previewing the AFC this week. If you missed last week's NFC preview, you can check that out here.
Many of you wanted to see a harsh punishment for whichever one of us does the worst at our over/under picks this season. And so we've decided to send the loser on a 180-mile drive to this 1.8 star-rated Arby's in Vestal, NY where they will need to consume one roast beef sandwich for every win below the victor. For example, if Matt goes 20-12 and Kirk goes 2-30, Kirk would have to eat 18 roast beef sandwiches in central New York before he can return to civilization.
Now that you're good and hungry, let's dive in.
AFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bills — 10.5 wins | Over | Under |
Dolphins — 9.5 wins | Over | Under |
Patriots — 4.5 wins | Under | Over |
Jets — 9.5 wins | Under | Over |
Best Bet
Matt: Dolphins over
The Dolphins looked like the best team in football for the first half of last season when their scorching hot offense was putting up 70 points en route to a 9-3 record. Then the wheels fell off due to a slew of injuries which culminated in a lackluster ice bowl playoff loss at Arrowhead. I think the way they went out last year will have some people off the scent. The fact of the matter is that they are still a super fast offense with weapons like Hill, Waddle, Achane, and Mostert. De'Von Achane is probably the guy I'm most excited to watch this year. In the games he played last season, he led all running backs in yards before contact AND yards after contact. As Larry David would say, "Pretty good".
Side note: I kind of love Mike McDaniel? I don't want to. But I do. Watch out, guys. He'll steal your girl if you're not careful. Anyway, I'm obviously not an X's and O's expert, but the way McDaniel uses motion to take advantage of his speedy skill position players is impressive and really fun to watch. It's hard to root against (or stop) this offense when they get going. They may not be built for cold weather, but this is a regular season win total bet. So we can always turn around and bet against them in on Wild Card Weekend (I will NEVER call it Super Wild Card Weekend, I refuse). What's great is the Dolphins go to Buffalo in early November before things get too frigid (thanks, Chinese climate hoax). After that, they only need to visit Lambeau in November, Cleveland in December, and the Meadowlands in January. Only 3 potential snowy games on the schedule for the year bodes well for them.
Yes, Tua's injury history definitely worries me. Mike White and Skylar Thompson are not getting them anywhere near this win total, so he needs to stay on the field. Plus, that dude needs to finally catch a break, so let's hope he is healthy.
Kirk: Bills Under
This team is done, has been done, and will officially be done once they fail to miss the playoffs during the "Josh Allen Window". Call your local council because someone forgot to pick up the trash, and it's starting to reek.
To be clear, the trash are the Bills.
According to statmuse, which is based on AI and I don't trust at all so this is all very confusing, the Bills scored their lowest points per game since 2019 when Josh Allen was still a young pup with just (26.5). That's a fall off 5 points in 2020 and 2 points in each of the last two years.
They have also mortgaged their defense at the cost of their offense, which I don't totally blame, I thought Josh Allen was a guy too, but he's not (defense is important when you no score good anymore). Like many Buffalo fans, dare I say all, he is skittish and mistake prone given to bouts of bravado that his ass can't cash. I can't wait to see a TD followed by a game losing fumble. This is the least likeable team in the NFL and I hope they go 0-17, sell the team, and move to a real sports city with passionate fans like Boise.
AFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Ravens — 10.5 wins | Under | Under |
Bengals — 10.5 wins | Under | Over |
Browns — 8.5 wins | Over | Over |
Steelers — 8.5 wins | Over | Under |
Best Bet
Matt: Bengals under
I don't like anything happening in Cincinnati right now. Following a season-ending wrist injury last year, Joe Burrow was expected to be cleared to throw by May. He wasn't cleared until about a week ago. It was difficult to predict when he would be able to return because literally no other professional quarterback has had the same injury. Put a giant red flag next to that sentence. ALSO he showed up to training camp looking like The Slim Shady LP-era Eminem:
I'm out.
Burrow has still not thrown the ball on two consecutive days at training camp and seems unlikely to take snaps in the preseason. So we're not really going to know anything about his status until Week 1. I guess one silver lining is that they open the season against the lowly Patriots thanks to their last place schedule. But then they head right from there to Arrowhead, so they better hope things are clicking early.
Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon departed in the offseason. Tee Higgins had a public contract dispute with the team and ultimately signed a franchise tag that he seems pretty pissed about. Ja’Marr Chase reported to camp, but has yet to take the field because he wants a contract extension similar to the $140 million deal that the Vikings gave to Justin Jefferson. The talent is certainly there, but the vibes are not great.
Oh — and literally while I was writing my notes for this section, defensive end Cam Sample tore his achilles and will miss the 2024 season. Another injury blow to a team that seems to be cursed with them lately.
People will see the relatively easy schedule and expect a healthy Joe Burrow to coast into the playoffs. But we all know the AFC North is always a dogfight and I'm not convinced this team will be durable enough to get to 11 wins. In fact, give me the Patriots +9 at Cincinnati in Week 1 Oddball right now.
Kirk: Bengals Over
While my previous answer may slightly color your expectations here, this is not a spite pick. And while I do enjoy spiting Matt with every fiber of my body, I'm betting on the QB who I think is clearly the QB2 of the league (Joe Burrow) to come back pissed off after a truncated injury filled campaign last year.
I'm not really taking the rest of the AFC North into the picture when factoring in win totals here, I don't think it really matters who they play. People forget in 2022 the Bengals went 12-4 and went to the Super Bowl. Joe Burrow is that dude. If the receivers don't matter for Mahomes (TONEY ROFL), then I'm not sure a better core that may have some 'vibe' issues will suffer a worse fate.
AFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Texans — 9.5 wins | Over | Under |
Colts — 8.5 wins | Over | Over |
Jaguars — 8.5 wins | Under | Under |
Titans — 6.5 wins | Under | Over |
Best Bet
Matt: Colts over
Sure, it was a small sample size (side note: we used to call my roommate Dom "small sample size" in college), but Anthony Richardson is fucking electric. His jaw-dropping 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters as a rookie was the most EVER by a quarterback. But, because I had him on my fantasy team, he only played like four games before getting shut down with a hodgepodge of injuries and was replaced by 70's porn star Gardner Minshew. Despite the QB situation and star running back Jonathan Taylor holding out for the first four weeks of the year, the Colts still came within a 4th & 1 conversion in Week 18 from winning the division.
It was an impressive start to Shane Steichen's head coaching career. Steichen, like me, had some good times in Philadelphia but knew when it was time to get the heck out of there. The wooter is always warmer on the other side. Anyway, he's good at his job and I'm excited to see what he does with a full season of Richardson and Taylor — both of whom will benefit from a talented offensive line and great blocking.
I never learn my lessons, so I'll be wagering on the Colts and trying hard to draft Richardson in fantasy again this year for sure. The early part of the schedule may be a gauntlet, but the latter half includes matchups against the Patriots, Giants, Broncos, Texans, and Vikings. It's the perfect setup for a late-season surge. So, buckle up; the Colts are about to sneak away with the AFC South like they snuck out of Baltimore in the middle of the night.
Kirk: Jaguars under
As much as it pains me to not root for Doug Pederson, I just don't think the Jaguars have a real franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. Of course I only felt this take deep in my gamblers plums after he was handed a new contract. We've seen enough that I don't think he'll be 'taking the next leap' like we hope for and sometimes see in young players.
He seems to be the best mediocre QB I've ever seen. I just don't feel it's enough to propel them into the playoffs let alone keep them from sliding in win total. This is year 3 of Doug Pederson at the helm after the utter disaster that was the Urban Meyer year and it already feels stale.
They've gone 9-8 in each of the last two years and play in a feisty division. And again I love Doug Pederson for helping bring the city of Philadelphia a Lombardi but let's keep in mind a couple things. First he has a MVP caliber year out of Carson Wentz before his injury, and second, Nick Foles saw The Matrix and could do wrong. It was magic in a bottle and that bottle is dry.
AFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Broncos — 5.5 wins | Under | Under |
Chiefs — 11.5 wins | Over | Under |
Raiders — 6.5 wins | Over | Over |
Chargers — 8.5 wins | Under | Over |
Best Bet
Matt: Raiders over
This seems like a really low total for a team that still has some legit talent, especially on defense. They won 8 games last year in a season that was considered a colossal disappointment and featured a midyear coaching change. They'll have more consistency in 2024, with "locker room guy" Antonio Pierce assuming head coaching duties and Gardner Minshew coming in to backup Aidan O'Connell if O'Connell proves he isn't the guy.
As long as one of the two quarterbacks is capable enough to get the ball to Davante Adams, they should be able to score points and stay in the mix for a Wild Card spot. They added tight end Brock Bowers (awesome name) in the draft to give them another receiving threat and have reliable kicking with Daniel Carlson making 92% of his attempts over his first three seasons with the team. If either Zamir White or Alexander Mattinson can give them some chunk runs on the ground, they'll be a tough out.
Plus, how do you not root for Maxx Crosby? Crosby had 14.5 sacks last year and he'll be joined by Christian Wilkins who had 9 of his own for the Dolphins. They'll have an even more deadly pass rush and were already the 7th-ranked defense in the NFL last year. I expect they'll have opposing quarterbacks looking like a bear cub in the back of RFK Jr.'s town car. This will take some pressure off the semi-unproven quarterback corps.
The schedule is a mixed bag with some tough AFC opponents, but they also play the soft NFC South, the Vikings, the Steelers, and the Broncos (twice). I think they end up with at least 9 wins and hit this over comfortably.
Kirk: Raiders Over
Well, well, well me and the Matt man agree on something. Maybe I do like this man.
One thing I love to see in the new 17 game NFL is teams who may not be the best, play hard as shit. They get the low win total treatment and I feel like this team more than any maybe personally offended. Their defense is stout with some angry gentlemen.
Perhaps most importantly this year they also have Gardner Minshew competing for the starting QB role against a guy, who, no offense, couldn't lead his team to any points in a 3-0 loss last year to the Vikings in the worst fucking thing I've ever seen from start to finish.
I won't parrot much of what Matt wrote above as I happen to agree to all of it. Let's put a fat bet on it my friend.
(Matt's note: Shit, why do I suddenly feel worse about this pick??)
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
2023 Result | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | Ravens | Chiefs | Bengals |
Division Winners | Bills Chiefs Texans | Bills Browns Colts | Jets Colts Chargers |
Wild Cards | Browns Dolphins Steelers | Texans Dolphins Raiders | Chiefs Bills Ravens |
Best QB on a New Team
We won't count Aaron Rodgers here, since technically he won't be making his New York Jets debut and would likely be the easy pick in this category. That leaves us with some limited choices here...
Brissett/Maye (NE) Wilson/Fields (PIT) Nix (DEN) Minshew (LV)
Matt: Wilson/Fields (PIT)
I'm just here for the drama. Using the word "best" to describe either of these guys is kind of tough, but it will certainly be a compelling quarterback battle in Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin has always been capable of squeezing every last drop of potential from mediocre teams and he'll have his work cut out for him here. But he's said that he likes having both of these guys under center because they both have something to prove. The same can be said about offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who was relieved of his head coaching duties in Atlanta even though he was expected to succeed with Desmond Ridder at quarterback? Seems kind of unfair. That said, he still got 7 wins and did some interesting things in the run game. He'll be able to do the same with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in backfield, which should open things up for whichever one of these castoffs wins the starting job. Another advantage? They'll both have George Pickens to throw to, and he can make anyone look good. Also, as of writing this, there are some legit rumors about Brandon Aiyuk and his pet ladybug getting traded to Pittsburgh. If that happens, look out.
Just keep Russell away from the blocking sleds, airplane aisles, and kids building sandcastles and I think the Steelers will be a bit better than people think.
Kirk: Gardner Minshew (LV)
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Bengals
Sorry, not betting on a quarterback who has a first-of-its-kind wrist injury, can't throw the ball two days in a row, bleaches his hair, and shows up to Paris Fashion Week in a backless suit jacket.
Honorable mention: The Jets — for basically no other reason except for that they are the Jets. Even when it all looks good on paper, that paper ends up getting pissed on by one of Robert Saleh's seven kids.
Kirk: Steelers
It's officially time for Mike Tomlin to ride off into that sunset and have a terrible season. When The Football Gods changed the season length to 17 games the Steelers could no longer bank on going 8-8. They could no longer sit in the hammock of mediocrity.
Matt is also intrigued to watch the QB battle brewing between a washed up guy and a guy so bad he has not been able to become washed up. He is still stuck in the first rinse cycle.
I'm going to be really honest with you guys. This one is a hate pick. I'm just tired of watching Steelers football, hearing about Steelers football, the culture, the steel city, the Yinzers, all of it. It's time to let the past go. Change your culture from boring, mundane, Twilight Zone repetition. Do anything fun. ANYTHING!
There's only one thing from the Pittsburg I even look forward to seeing and it's this:
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Colts
I'm all in on Indianapolis this year. I love Anthony Richardson, especially with Joe Flacco backing him up (a much better insurance policy than Minshew). Their wide receivers are underrated with Pittman and Downs being joined by Adonai Mitchell, who slipped in the draft because of off-the-field issues related to his Type I diabetes. Let's get the guy some insulin, make sure Joe Biden "finally beats Medicare", and we're off to the races. Also this is an even more fun pick because I can potentially watch the Eagles fans in my life realize in realtime that they let the real brains behind the 2022 Birds team leave.
Kirk: Chargers
I'm buying the Jim Harbaugh stock. For no reason other than this guy fucking lives and dies with football. He may be corny but he is utterly without a hint of bullshit and the guys can feel it. Sometimes a head coach is fired for being an awful decision maker, sometimes to change the culture.
Brandon Staley was fired for both. Harbaugh is the antithesis of that man.
I'm gambling that the Chiefs will backslide a bit during the regular season, regular not playoffs, and I think the Chargers will be hungry. I mean I've seen like 15 god damn ads with Justin Herbert eating Subway sandwiches. Eat fresh.
Matt's Three Things to Watch
Aaron Rodgers on the Jets
Aaron Rodgers played for the Jets for like 20 seconds last year, but he's back! Albeit on an achilles that has been glued back together with CBD oil and vegan cream cheese. Having Rodgers as a starting quarterback in the largest media market in the country during an election year is going to make for an interesting few months. This situation is a win/win though — either he stinks and we all get to laugh at his kookyness and enjoy the inevitable meltdown of Jets fans across the tristate area (WFAN will be absolutely hilarious if this happens) OR he's really solid and we get to watch him engineer an exciting offense that also includes fantasy stars Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Throw some popcorn in the microwave, sit back, and let's see what happens to Gang Green this year.
C.J. Stroud's sophomore effort
Uncle Jack's favorite quarterback, C.J. Stroud, was magnificent last season. He threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only five interceptions, leading Houston to the second round of the playoffs and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process. Not bad for your first year in the league. I'll pause there and let Carolina fans go throw up. But the real question is whether or not Stroud will suffer a sophomore slump. The Texans' management is certainly giving him as much support as possible to ensure that doesn't happen, adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the offense. He'll also still have reliable options Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz to throw to. I'm interested to see if a regression comes for the Texans or if the hype is real.
Are the Chiefs just inevitable at this point?
They just became the first repeat champion in 19 years and captured their third Super Bowl Title in five years. Could they become the very first team to three-peat? It's hard to believe even Brady never did this, which speaks to just how hard it is to get back to the big game year after year. I don't know though. I certainly wouldn't bet against the Chiefs, who won it all last year with the worst wide receiving corps in the league. The offseason addition of Hollywood Brown will give Mahomes a dangerous deep threat that he hasn't had since Tyreek Hill's departure. I'm not comparing those two players necessarily, but it's still an improvement over whatever the hell Kadarius Toney was. And everyone wants to know how Travis Kelce will look this season after a summer galavanting around the world on The Eras Tour. I'm sure the Chiefs haters will come out of the woodwork ready to blame Taylor Swift for their downfall, should they lose Week 1 against the Ravens. But the Chiefs have shown time and again that they are able to shake it off. See what I did there? Okay, now I'm the one that's gonna throw up.
Kirk's Three Things to Watch
Aaron Rodgers on the Jets
Drake Maye
I'm dreading Drake Maye. Tom Brady's dominance is a not so distance memory. I don't know that I can handle a resurgence in New England if Maye turns into a solid NFL QB.
Oh wait Bill Belichick the best coach of all time got the ol' stanky boot straight out of town and then had his character assassinated in the totally slanted bullshit hit piece The Dynasty that somehow has a fucking 100% on Rotten Tomatoes oh wait a minute there are only 12 reviews from people who are certainly shills on there and I'm thinking this is starting to be a run on sentence good god.
The Patriots are going to suck for a long time. I'm here for it.
The Broncos
You know what I'm starting to realize. I am a hater. I think this self reflection only comes with age but I really have embraced it.
In this situation it's not the Broncos I hate, hell, many of their fans and their own Peyton Manning are filled with a folksish whimsy that I find utterly enjoyable.
No my hate here is for Sean Peyton. Leading candidate for coaches with a punchable face. More than anything I hate this man for his little man tirades on the side lines screaming in his players faces like he's the fucking guru of football. Mother fucker you had Drew Brees as your quarterback. That is the only reason you won a Super Bowl. Case closed Johnson. You lost to the Dolphins by 100! You suck!
The Football Gods do not forget and their karmic retribution is far from over.
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